Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be attempting to break over the $20,500 resistance within the last 35 days, using the latest unsuccessful attempt on March. 6. Meanwhile, bears have displayed strength on four different occasions after BTC tested levels below $18,500 in that period.
Investors continue to be unsure whether $18,200 really was the underside since the support level weakens every time it’s tested. That’s the reason it’s essential for bulls to help keep the momentum in this week’s $510 million options expiry.
The March. 21 options expiry is particularly relevant because Bitcoin bears can profit $80 million by suppressing BTC below $19,000.
Bears placed their bets at $19,000 minimizing
Outdoors interest for that March. 21 options expiry is $510 million, however the actual figure is going to be lower since bears were excessively-positive. These traders completely missed the objective placing bearish bets at $17,500 minimizing after BTC dumped below $19,000 on March. 13.
The .77 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance from the $290 million put (sell) open interest from the $220 million call (buy) options. Nonetheless, as Bitcoin stands near $19,000, most bearish bets will probably become useless.
If Bitcoin’s cost remains above $19,000 at 8:00 am UTC on March. 21, only 4% of those put (sell) options is going to be available. This difference is really because the right to market Bitcoin at $18,000 or $19,000 is useless if BTC trades above that much cla on expiry.
Bulls can continue to switch the table and secure a $150 million profit
Here are the 4 probably scenarios in line with the current cost action. The amount of Bitcoin options contracts on March. 21 for call (bull) and set (bear) instruments varies, with respect to the expiry cost. The imbalance favoring both sides constitutes the theoretical profit:
- Between $18,000 and $19,000: calls versus. 4,300 puts. The internet result favors the put (bear) instruments by $80 million.
- Between $19,000 and $20,000: 1,500 calls versus. 1,100 puts. The internet outcome is balanced between calls and puts.
- Between $20,000 and $21,000: 4,300 calls versus. 100 puts. The internet result favors the phone call (bull) instruments by $85 million.
- Between $21,000 and $22,000: 7,200 calls versus. puts. The internet result favors the phone call (bull) instruments by $150 million.
This crude estimate views the put options utilized in bearish bets and also the call options solely in neutral-to-bullish trades. Nevertheless, this oversimplification disregards more complicated investment opportunities.
For instance, an investor might have offered a put option, effectively gaining positive contact with Bitcoin over a specific cost, but regrettably, there is no good way to estimate this effect.
Related: Sharp Bitcoin cost move expected as volatility hangs at record lows and sellers are ‘exhausted’
A couple of more dips below $19,000 wouldn’t be surprising
Bitcoin bears have to push the cost below $19,000 to secure an $80 million profit. However, the bulls’ best-situation scenario needs a pump above $21,000 to switch the tables and score a $150 million gain.
Bitcoin bulls had $80 million in leveraged lengthy positions liquidated on March. 12 and March. 13, so that they must have less margin than is needed they are driving the cost greater. Consequently, bears have greater likelihood of pinning BTC below $19,000 in front of the March. 21 weekly options expiry.
The views and opinions expressed listed here are exclusively individuals from the author and don’t always reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and buying and selling move involves risk, you need to conduct your personal research when making the decision.
