Biden’s Election Prospects Crash on Crypto Markets After Report of Obama Concerns

United States President Joe Biden’s prospects of running for a second presidential term are dimming, according to bettors on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, as speculation over the incumbent commander in chief’s mounting health issues cast doubt on his fitness for the country’s top office. 

A Polymarket betting pool holding more than $135 million in cryptocurrencies shows 60% of traders are betting that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will clinch the Democratic presidential nomination by August 21. By comparison, just 28% of users are placing their bets on Biden topping the ticket.

Meanwhile, roughly 10% of bettors are putting odds on other potential candidates, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Polymarket data shows. The chances of Harris securing the nomination rose as high as 64% earlier Thursday.

Bettors’ crashing confidence in Biden’s ability to secure the Democratic presidential nomination marks a sharp contrast to their previous predictions. Last week, bettors had Biden’s odds of running for re-election at roughly 74%, according to a screenshot of Polymarket data shared on Twitter (aka X) by pseudonymous Coinbase engineer Yuga.eth. 

The stunning reversal of those odds comes amid a report from The Washington Post that President Barack Obama has expressed doubts about the “viability” of Biden’s second presidential run to his political allies, and just a day after Biden revealed he had been diagnosed with COVID-19.

The diagnosis came on the heels of widespread public speculation about the octogenarian president’s mental fitness to run for office, following Biden’s poor performance during a public debate with Republican challenger Donald Trump last month.

Prediction markets have occasionally proven to be more accurate barometers of voter behaviors than traditional polling methods. PredictIt, a prominent prediction market, touted in a public statement that its traders accurately called electoral college outcomes in seven battleground states during the U.S. presidential election in 2020.

Meanwhile, many political commentators criticized pre-election polling data that year for overstating Biden’s lead over Trump, according to a report from nonpartisan think tank Pew Research Center. Still, experts remain divided on whether prediction markets can consistently predict the outcomes of future events.

Edited by Andrew Hayward

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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