Kamala Harris Presidential Odds Hit Record High on Polymarket

Presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ election odds have hit a new all-time high on crypto prediction market Polymarket on Thursday, as the incumbent vice president’s campaign ramps up.

A Polymarket betting pool with more than $472 million wagered shows Harris’ odds of winning the presidential election are 45%, up roughly 6% in the past 24 hours. During the same time period, Republican nominee Donald Trump’s odds similarly decreased to 53%, according to the same data. 

Harris’ odds of securing the top office at the White House have climbed steadily on Polymarket since Biden dropped out of the U.S. presidential race nearly two weeks ago. Between July 21 and August 1, Harris’ odds grew by 16 percentage points, from 29% to 45%, Polymarket wager data shows. By comparison, Trump’s odds have fallen by 10 percentage points during the same time period.

Meanwhile, the odds for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is on the ballot in some U.S. states and known for his pro-crypto stance, have held relatively steady at 1%. 

Harris’ growing odds on Polymarket comes as the Harris campaign picks up steam in the three-month period leading up to Election Day, with contributors donating a whopping $200 million to the Democrat in one week, according to Harris’ deputy campaign manager Rob Flaherty on Sunday. It also comes as Harris’ campaign is increasingly rallying in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Harris’ climbing election odds on Polymarket also correspond with the presidential candidate’s surging popularity in national polls. A new poll from market research firm Leger that was conducted between July 26 and July 28 shows 48% of voters plan to cast ballots for Harris, giving the Democrat a seven-percentage-point lead over her Republican challenger Trump.

Harris’ popularity is also on the rise within the Democratic Party. Roughly 80% of Democrats reported being “somewhat or very satisfied” with Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, a survey from the Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows. 

As pre-election political fervor reaches new heights in the U.S., Polymarket has seen a record surge in activity.

According to Dune analytics data, the prediction market platform saw over $387 million in trading volume in July, more than triple the prior month, largely driven by the U.S. elections.

To deal with the massive increase in bettor demand, Polymarket began utilizing crypto payment company MoonPay’s services last week, according to a statement from MoonPay. Now, bettors will be able to pay for their wagers via bank transfers and credit card payments facilitated by MoonPay.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.