US Recession Odds Drop as Trump Pauses Reciprocal Tariffs on Most Countries

The U.S.’ economic recession odds fell between roughly 15% and 25% across prediction markets on Wednesday, shortly after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs.  

Global trading platform Myriad Markets forecast a 46% chance of the U.S. entering a recession by the end of 2025. Polymarket and U.S.-based Kalshi put the odds at 48% and 55%, respectively. (Myriad Markets is a unit of Dastan, Decrypt’s parent company.)

The dip in the U.S.’ recession odds comes after the White House administration implemented Wednesday a 90-day pause on tariffs of at least 10% on all U.S. imports. The announcement sent stocks soaring, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 grazing a 10% intraday high. 

The market rebound marks a stunning reversal of the past week’s rout, which President Trump set into motion with the unveiling of his aggressive tariff regime. 

“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!,” President Trump said in a Truth Social post four hours before issuing the tariff pause. 

Much like bettors, some analysts have also revised their thoughts on the likelihood of a recession stateside. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday rescinded its prediction that the U.S. would fall into an economic recession by the end of 2025, according to a Bloomberg report.  

Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, warned investors that investment firms’ forecasts shouldn’t be misconstrued as endorsements of the U.S.’ economic strength, however. 

“The tariff pause reduces recession fears, but it’s still VERY risky,” Wolfers said in a social media post. 

The odds of a recession in the U.S. are “still high [on prediction markets] because the President has already done a lot of damage and he’s offering no more than a partial fix.”

Edited by James Rubin