Analyst on $17.6K BTC cost bottom: Bitcoin ‘not there yet’

Bitcoin’s (BTC) market behavior isn’t yet “synonymous” with previous bear market bottoms, one of the main crypto analysts argues.

Inside a Twitter thread on Sept. 14, statistician Willy Woo, creator of information resource Woobull, offered three types of why BTC/USD should have further to fall.

Despite many calling a new macro cost bottom during June’s visit to $17,600, not everybody is certain that Bitcoin will avoid a retest.

For Woo, there’s still need to think that ‘abnormal’ amounts will mark the brand new cost floor — and this may be anywhere, including below $10,000.

“Underwater” supply lacking bottom zone

One metric Woo flags may be the number of the general BTC supply held baffled — now more vital compared to cost where it last moved.

In the past bear markets, cost bottoms coincided using more than 60% of coins being underwater.

“In relation to max discomfort, the marketplace hasn’t felt exactly the same discomfort as prior bottoms,” he cautioned alongside a chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

Based on that chart, 52% from the supply is presently baffled, and to be able to hit the 60% mark, BTC/USD will have to dip to simply $9,600.

Bitcoin cost basis density annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Woo added that in the pit of Bitcoin’s prior bear markets, supply baffled “cleanly” pierced a lengthy-term trend line, something also yet to occur now.

Cost basis edges toward target zone

Another telltale manifestation of the Bitcoin market bottoming is based on the composition of their investor base — lengthy-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.

Normally, at the end, STHs possess a less expensive basis than LTHs. Which means that STHs compensated less for his or her coins than LTHs, the second understood to be individuals hodling BTC for 155 days or even more.

“We are close, although not there yet. More time for you to burn IMO,” Woo commented.

Bitcoin hodler cost basis annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

Formerly, David Puell, creator from the Puell Multiple indicator, flagged variations on price basis being an “interesting” step to consider for analysts.

Accumulation not “synonymous” with history

Finally, hodlers large and small still need accumulate harder, Woo concludes.

Related: BTC cost clings to $20K as US stocks lose the same as 4 Bitcoin market caps

Alongside a Glassnode chart of bear market accumulation trends, he noted that in 2022, BTC is not flowing from sellers to “urgent” buyers in a comparable rate to before.

Bitcoin bear market accumulation annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/ Twitter

“So far we have not had the amount of accumulation synonymous to prior bottoms,” he described.

The views and opinions expressed listed here are exclusively individuals from the author and don’t always reflect the views of Every investment and buying and selling move involves risk, you need to conduct your personal research when making the decision.

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