The outcome of Fed policy and Bitcoin’s greater time-frame market structure claim that BTC cost isn’t yet ready for any trend reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC) cost is constantly on the chop underneath the $22,000 level and also the wider narrative among traders and also the mainstream media shows that a danger-off sentiment is really a dominant perspective in front of this week’s Jackson Hole summit.
Within the three-day symposium, the Fed is anticipated to explain its perspective on inflation, rate of interest hikes and also the all around health from the U . s . States economy.
Meanwhile, traders on Crypto Twitter still fantisize in regards to a “Fed pivot” where interest hikes is going to be curtailed below .25 basis points and some type of financial easing re-emerges, but the probability of the Given adopting a dovish point-of-view within the short-term appears impractical, because of the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
Regarding Bitcoin’s newest cost action, a classic saying among traders is:
“Fade rapid-term trend in support of the lengthy-term trend.”
From the bird’s-eye-view, BTC cost is within a obvious downtrend having a four-month lengthy stretch of recurring bear flags that still see continuation.
The strength of the hammer. pic.twitter.com/ayxELfsBdz
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) August 23, 2022
Sure, the on-chain data hints that perhaps cost reaches a bottom.
Obviously, aggregate volumes and certain on-chain data searching at whale and shrimp BTC addresses may point toward accumulation.
Yeah, outdoors curiosity about BTC and Ether is constantly on the achieve record highs which adds fuel towards the bullish ETH Merge and ETH proof-of-strive fork tokens narrative triggering a juicy short squeeze on BTC and ETH.
Any one of individuals things can occur, but beware the narrator of individuals hopium-infused dreams and don’t forget the trend is usually a good friend that the trader can rely on.
As uncomfortable as it can seem, the popularity is lower. Bitcoin is constantly on the meet resistance at its lengthy-term climbing down trendline and also the cost has unsuccessful to secure resistance at key moving averages such as the 20, 50 and 200-day MA.
Each cost drop is just developing a flag-pole, and also the ensuing “consolidation” produces the flag from the bear flag continuation pattern. Because the pink boxes around the daily chart shows, BTC cost simply trades inside a defined range before breaking below it into underlying liquidity proven through the volume profile visible range and liquidity maps.
$BTC Aggregated Optical opti example from yesterday
How you can read liq maps:https://t.co/EaeFkgiggg
Join the conversation:https://t.co/Ac5ChFuNNl pic.twitter.com/nhVMv9suMH
— TheKingfisher (@kingfisher_btc) August 24, 2022
Basically, there’s “nothing to determine here” until cost paints a couple of daily candle lights that reflect greater highs, i.e., BTC must obvious $25,000 and shut that volume profile gap within the $25,000 to $29,000 zone.
After that, you might either need to see consolidation within that new greater range, or continuation of the trend reversal in which the 20-MA and 50-MA work as support. As pointed out earlier, obviously there’s a lot of other data points which make a powerful situation why the present cost range is really a buy zone, what might be true for just one trader isn’t always the situation for those.
Some investors are able to afford to spread out swing longs here minimizing and ride it since they’re flush and that’s a part of their plan. Others possess a smaller sized purse and can’t pay the lost chance price of being locked right into a red position for several weeks on finish. Traders will always be asked to do their very own research, make their very own thesis and manage risk in a manner that is the best for their situation.
Jackson Hole is on its way and also the Given must continue rate hikes until inflation along with other metrics they are under control. Equities markets remain tightly correlated with Bitcoin cost, therefore the tell is going to be whether SPX and DJI still steamroll greater, or maybe future actions in the Fed start to place a damper around the recent bullish momentum.
The views and opinions expressed listed here are exclusively individuals from the author and don’t always reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and buying and selling move involves risk, you need to conduct your personal research when making the decision.
